There is an old joke about a conversation between a pessimist and an optimist: the pessimist insists things are as bad as they can be; the optimist reassures him they can get much, much worse.

So it is with England's future. After a grim 2014 - a year in which they lost two coaches, a captain, the leading run-scorer in their history and far more games than they won - they embark from Heathrow on Tuesday at the start of the busiest year they have ever faced.

It is a daunting challenge. Quite apart from a tri-series against two strong ODI sides, they go into the World Cup with a deserved reputation as underdogs, before returning to host an impressive New Zealand, an Ashes series against an opponent that beat them 5-0 in their last meeting, a series against Pakistan in the UAE (we all recall how that went last time) and, before Christmas, a trip to South Africa to play the No. 1 Test team. Even if the players can get through that physically - and the demands on the fast bowlers are clearly counter-productive to England's long-term success - it is hugely demanding in cricketing terms. It could all become quite ugly.

Yet 2015 is also the year of opportunity. England are unencumbered by expectation. They have a young batting line-up with few scars, no fear and the potential to hurt bowling attacks. And they have, in ODI cricket at least, a captain who seems prepared to live and die by the sword. They will play more aggressive, entertaining cricket and they will represent dangerously unpredictable opposition against sides who will be expected to defeat them. And, as Bob Dylan put it, when you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.

At first glance, it is hard to be wildly optimistic of England's chances in the World Cup. At second glance, too. They have won one of their last seven ODI series and three of their last 13 completed ODIs. Furthermore, Peter Moores, the coach, admitted in his departure media conference that he had still not settled on a starting XI; far from ideal in a form of the game where role-definition and familiarity is so important.

Indeed, it was the sort of media conference - full of expressions such as "if we can get on a roll" and "we need to execute our skills better" - that could have been held before every World Cup dating back to 1996. The sort of media conference where hope and hubris are used to disguise results and logic. For all the miles they travel, it sometimes seems that England haven't gone very far.

It remains a nonsense that, for all the years of planning, for all the effort of rescheduling an Ashes series so they could go into this World Cup well-prepared, they have a new captain and may field a top-order of James Taylor, Moeen Ali, Alex Hales and Gary Ballance boasting just 37 caps between them. That is almost 400 fewer than Mahela Jayawardene has managed on his own. Really, whichever way you look at it, the selectors have wasted that preparation period.

Yet if you scrape away the debris of Alastair Cook's ODI career, it was just about possible to identify the nucleus of a new, more potent, England side emerging from the defeat in Sri Lanka. Moeen justified the decision to promote him to the top of the order, Taylor justified the decision to bring him in at No. 3 and Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler, despite recent ups and downs, remain a dangerous middle-order. Joe Root has developed into a top player capable of rebuilding or accelerating an innings and the return of James Anderson and Stuart Broad to bowl at the death and in the Powerplays should improve the attack markedly.

And, while experience is beneficial, it is not everything. England won the World T20 in 2010, the only global limited-overs title in their history, with a team including several called up at late notice. Five of that squad had four caps between them and neither of the opening pair, Michael Lumb and Craig Kieswetter, had played a T20 international.

It all renders them significantly better than they looked in Sri Lanka. They are not the no-hopers their recent record might suggest.

Certainly that was the view of Moores as he boarded the plane. While admitting a fair few things had to fall into place if England were to challenge at the World Cup - not least the relationship with Morgan who will have a major say in the selection of the side - he insisted that England did not have to change the way they played ODI cricket; they just had to play it better.

"Yes, we are contenders because we have good enough players," he said. "We have to play better but we know if we start to put those individual performances together we will be a very good side. That's the beauty of the World Cup: if you get on a roll you can do very well.

"We don't have to change our approach from the way we played in Sri Lanka. Anyone who watched us bat will know we played in a different style there. We didn't always execute it perfectly because we got bowled out. But we scored at a quicker rate than Sri Lanka in most of the games, we promoted Moeen Ali to bat at the top of the order and we got two bowlers in the top five as we tried to create some flexibility.

"That change of mindset has already happened. Eoin will drive that really hard and that's a good thing. He plays his cricket like that, he wants to be aggressive and look for positive opportunities."

Morgan's involvement with the Big Bash has limited opportunities for him and Moores to plan and it remains unclear whether Ian Bell or Hales will open the batting with Moeen at the start of the tri-series tournament. While both could also bat at No. 3, as could Ballance, it is the decision over the opening position that will most obviously define the approach the new management are going to take. Hales would be the bolder choice, certainly, but Bell might be considered more appropriate for a team that has been bowled out within 50 overs in nine of its last 12 ODIs.

"Eoin will have a strong view on what he thinks the starting eleven should be and we've not discussed it yet," Moores said. "It is important we give ourselves that time.

"There are different permutations of teams that we can go with. I can write down three or four teams and they all seem really strong, which is good for us. But it is important that we identify our shape early and we'll do that as soon as we get to Australia.

"Eoin has been with us while I've been coaching the one-day side and has been captain when Alastair hasn't been available. He's been very involved in all the decisions anyway because Alastair is close to him and he has a very good cricket brain.

"It will be exciting to work with Eoin, I think he will bring a lot to the team. He is a very straightforward captain which will be a good thing for us. He has a very strong desire to go out there and show how well he can play and how well we can play as a team.

"What I can say to everybody is we will go for it. My message to the players is first it is a great place to play cricket, and second, let's go for it, let's go and play good, hard cricket and enjoy playing for your country."

This is not the well-drilled, experienced squad England hoped to send to this World Cup. But it is dangerous, it has potential and it might yet create a shock or two before their race is run. As ever, though, it seems that, on the eve of a global event, England are preparing not for the World Cup that is six weeks away, but the one that is four years away.